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受新冠肺炎影响 建筑工程造价指数出现了2016年11月以来的首次负值

  • 来源:IHS Markit 网站
  • 点击量:33,560
  • qy8.com2020-06-10
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  据IHS Markit调查公司(NYSE:INFO)采购执行小组(PEG)数据,被调查者均认为工程造价的下滑压力将持续整个秋季,导致行业对造价的未来预期达到历史新低。

  经过连续41个月的增长后,建筑工程造价在今年4月份首次出现了下跌,继3月份勉强位于基准指数后,4月份的造价指数为34.9,建筑材料和设备造价指数为35.2,分包商造价指数为34.3,均位于50的基准指数之下。

  建筑材料和设备价格指数为35.2,不仅显示着该数值连续两个月的下跌,也表示该数值达到了历史新低。调查显示,与3月份相比,在建筑材料和设备12个分项中,除预制混凝土价格处于基准指数外,其余11项价格均有下跌。在建筑设备中,除转换机外,其余设备的价格均从3月份的上涨变成了4月份的下跌。结构钢、合金钢管、碳钢管等材料的价格更是达到了自2012年指数调查开始以来的最低。而目前调查显示的结果只表明4月份价格下跌,并不能确定价格不会继续探底。

  “建筑工程造价指数的快速下滑反映出美国经济的快速衰退,尤其是自1月份以来能源行业的衰退”,HIS Markit公司价格和采购调研主管约翰·马瑟索尔说,“HIS Markit公司并不认为二季度的油价已经探底,这表明,美国经济的复苏将会是一个漫长的过程,将持续到2021年”。

  分包商的人力成本指数3月份为52.0,4月份降为34.3。与材料和设备相同,美国和加拿大的人力成本也均达到了自2012年指数调查开始以来的最低。

  在经过连续43个月的增长后,建筑工程造价半年总体预期指数于今年4月份首次下降,位于42.1,IHS Markit调查公司PEG小组进行此项调查追踪后的又一新低。建筑材料、设备和人力预期价格均下跌。3月份,材料和设备的半年预期指数为57.6,4月份降为了40.7,其它所有分项的半年预期价格指数也均下降。4月份的人力成本预期指数为45.2,美国中西部地区的人力成本价格有望在接下来的6个月内有所增长,西部地区仍旧不景气,走势平平,而在加拿大、美国南部和东南部,人力成本价格将继续下跌。

  调查还发现,受新冠肺炎影响,建筑市场需求有所缩减。(翻译:qy8.com)

 

COVID-19 Impact Sends Engineering and Construction Costs Negative for First Time Since November 2016, IHS Markit Says

 

文章来源:IHS Markit 网站,Expectations for future construction costs reached all time low as respondents see negative cost pressures continuing through fall

April 29, 2020

  NEW YORK (April 29, 2020) – After 41 consecutive monthly increases, Engineering and Construction costs fell in April, according to IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO) and the Procurement Executives Group (PEG). The current headline IHS Markit PEG Engineering and Construction Cost Index registered 34.9 in April, after staying barely neutral in March. The materials and equipment portion of the index came in at 35.2 and the sub-contractor portion came in at 34.3; any figure below 50 indicates falling prices.

  The materials and equipment sub-index registered 35.2, recording both the second consecutive month of falling prices and an all-time low. Survey respondents reported falling prices for 11 out of the 12 components with only ready-mix prices coming in at neutral. Index figures for all categories dropped relative to March, indicating that a greater proportion of the respondents are observing lower prices. With the exception of exchangers, all equipment categories moved from increasing prices in March to falling prices in April. For categories such as fabricated steel, alloy steel pipe and carbon steel pipe, April’s diffusion index reading was the lowest since the survey started in 2012. This does not mean that respondents saw the lowest prices in April, merely that most companies surveyed observed falling prices.

  “The sharp decline recorded in the index highlights the rapid deterioration in the U.S. economy and, more specifically, in the energy industry since January,” said John Mothersole, director of research at IHS Markit pricing and purchasing. “IHS Markit does see a bottom for oil prices in the second quarter. This said, the recovery in the U.S. economy looks to be sluggish and extend well into 2021.”

  The sub-index for current subcontractor labor costs came in at 34.3 in April. Responders had noted rising prices in March, with an index figure of 52.0. Labor costs fell in all regions of the United States as well as Canada. Similar to materials and equipment sub-index, this was the lowest ever reading since the survey started in 2012.

  After 43 months of consecutive increases, the six-month headline expectations for future construction costs fell in April with an index figure of 42.1, yet another all-time low for the IHS Markit PEG Engineering and Construction Cost Index. Both the materials/equipment and labor subcomponents recorded expectations of future price decreases. The six-month materials and equipment expectations index came in at 40.7 this month, down from 57.6 last month, with responders expecting falling prices for all categories. Expectations for sub-contractor labor slipped to 45.2 in April. While the U.S. Midwest is expected to see higher labor costs in six months, labor costs are expected to stay flat in the U.S. West. Labor costs in Canada, U.S. South and U.S. Northeast are expected to keep falling.

 


  In the survey comments, respondents noted lower demand conditions due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).

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